A Comparison of Price Imputation Methods under Large Samples and Different Levels of Censoring.

Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, imputation methods, multiple imputation, censored prices, protein demand, elasticities,

Prices and Exchange Rates: A Theory of Disconnect

I present a sticky-wage model of exchange rate pass-through with heterogeneous producers and endogenous markups. The model shows that low levels of exchange rate pass-through to firm- and aggregate-level import prices coexist with large in trade flows. After an exchange rate shock, aggregate import prices are subject to a composition bias due to changes in the extensive margin of trade (the number of goods traded between countries). At the firm level, each producer adjusts its markups depending on its own productivity and the change in the competitive environment generated by the exchange rate movement. Firm-level price responses are asymmetric---different for appreciations and depreciations---and adjustments in the intensive margin of trade (firm-level exports) are substantial. In general equilibrium, the model shows that firm reallocations increase the persistence exogenous shocks.Exchange rate pass-through; Expenditure switching regime; Heterogenous firms; Endogenous markups

Nonlinear Exchange Rate Predictability

We study whether the nonlinear behavior of the real exchange rate can help us account for the lack of predictability of the nominal exchange rate. We construct a smooth nonlinear error-correction model that allows us to test the hypotheses of nonlinear predictability of the nominal exchange rate and nonlinear behavior on the real exchange rate in the context of a fully specified cointegrated system. Using a panel of 19 countries and three numeraires, we find evidence of nonlinear predictability of the nominal exchange rate and of nonlinear mean reversion of the real exchange rate. Out-of-sample Theil's U-statistics show a higher forecast precision of the nonlinear model than the one obtained with a random walk specification. Although the robustness of the out-of-sample results over different forecast windows is somewhat limited, we are able to obtain significant predictability gains--from a parsimonious structural model with PPP fundamentals--even at short-run horizons.Exchange rates; Predictability; Nonlinearities; Purchasing power parity

Estimation of a Censored Demand System in Stratified Sampling: An Analysis of Mexican Meat Demand at the Table Cut Level.

Evidence of meat trade in the form of table cuts suggests that consumer preferences and tastes vary across meat cuts. Unlike previous studies, this paper estimates demand elasticities at the table cut level from a Mexican survey of household incomes and expenditures, which is a stratified sample. The study uses the two-step estimation of a censored demand system proposed by Shonkwiler and Yen (1999) but incorporates stratification variables into the estimation procedure. Parameter estimates are reported and its standard errors are approximated by using the bootstrap procedure.censored demand system, two-step estimation procedure, stratified sampling, Mexican meat demand, elasticities, adult equivalent scales, bootstrap standard errors, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Q11,

EUROPEAN UNION COTTON DEMAND: AN APPLICATION OF DEMAND SYSTEMS AND PANEL DATA

A demand system approach incorporating demographic variables is used to estimate the European Union cotton demand parameters. The European Union is the largest cotton importer of the world. Accurate estimation of European demand parameters is critical to evaluate world cotton trends and to realistically simulate future market scenarios. Unlike previous studies, this paper reports a research in which demands of the 15 European Union members are not aggregated. Moreover, unlike available estimations, the study does not use mill consumption data but cotton equivalent consumption at home.International Relations/Trade,

Forecast and Simulation Analysis of Mexican Meat Consumption at the Table Cut Level: Impacts on U.S. Exports.

An analysis of current and forecasted Mexican meat consumption and imports is presented at the table cut level of disaggregation. Unlike previous studies, this study uses adult equivalence scales, a price imputation approach, a consistent censored demand system, and estimation techniques from stratified sampling. The results indicate that most Mexican consumption and imports of table cuts of meats grow at different rates. In addition, Mexico seems to be following the U.S. preferences for beef cuts, but it does not seem to be following the U.S. preferences for chicken cuts. The study may help U.S. and Canadian meat exporters in forecasting future exports to Mexico, conducting long-term meat investment decisions, or identifying trends in the consumption of specific table cuts of meats.forecast of Mexican meat consumption, forecast of Mexican imports, U.S. meat exports to Mexico, Mexican meat demand elasticities, meat analysis at the table cut level, censored demand system, two-step estimation procedure, stratified sampling, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade, Q11,

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